By HANNAH SPANGLER
Ahead of talks on the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), 13 Illinois Farm Bureau members and staff traveled to Mexico, visiting food markets and sitting down with agencies and industry professionals to see firsthand how deeply U.S. agriculture is woven into Mexico’s food system.
Efforts are ramping up to assess the trade agreement ahead of its first six-year review July 1, which made the USMCA a key topic of discussion on the IFB Market Study Tour to Mexico City March 9-13. While Estefanía Perez, deputy director for the U.S. Grains and BioProducts Council (USGBC), told FarmWeek agriculture was not expected to be discussed when the first round of USMCA talks began March 16, she said the industry remains a major component of the negotiations.
“The agricultural chapter is not within the first round of conversations,” Perez said, noting other trade items like automobiles and electronics are first on the discussion list. “We are pending … (and) are just ready for when they will talk about these (agriculture) topics.”
U.S. agricultural exports to Canada and Mexico have risen by $20 billion since USMCA took effect July 1, 2020, reaching $60 billion in 2024, as reported by the Agricultural Coalition for the USMCA, which is made up of 40 farm and agricultural groups, including the American Farm Bureau Federation. Mexico and Canada account for roughly one-third of U.S. total agricultural exports, and Illinois farmers across commodity sectors rely on this North American trade to support prices and demand.
Mexico alone accounts for over 17% of U.S. agricultural exports. The country relies heavily on imported grains and pork to meet domestic demand, with U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico valued at $30.6 billion. At the U.S. Embassy in Mexico City, Director of the USDA Agricultural Trade Office and Foreign Agricultural Service in Mexico Sean Cox told IFB members Mexico ranked among the top destinations for U.S. corn, soybeans and meat exports in 2025. Corn and soybean exports totaled more than $8 billion in value, while meat exports, including pork, beef and poultry, reached nearly $6 billion.
The trade relationship runs both ways. Cox said the U.S. also depends on imports from Mexico, including fresh vegetables, avocados, beer and more, valued at $44 billion. When imports and exports are combined, total U.S. agricultural trade with Mexico reached nearly $75 billion in 2025.
One area with potential to expand trade between the two countries is ethanol.
Vladimir Saldana, communications consultant for Mexico City, who has been advising the USGBC, told IFB members on day one of the Market Study Tour Mexico is exploring ethanol to diversify fuel supplies and improve air quality. He said ethanol could also create new markets for U.S. agricultural products, as Mexico’s domestic supply of feedstocks such as sorghum and sugarcane would not be sufficient to meet increased demand.
Saldana said Mexico has been studying ethanol blending models used in the U.S. and other countries, including Brazil, and is evaluating how ethanol could fit into its domestic fuel mix. He noted that ethanol discussions could “be a win” for USMCA conversations, particularly as trade officials examine ways to address imbalances and strengthen relationships.
“It’s not only a trade balance negotiation,” Saldana said, emphasizing that conversations regarding the USMCA are also a collaborative effort.
While ethanol represents a potential area for future growth, IFB members were reminded by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) meat trade remains one of the most immediate and sensitive components of the U.S-Mexico agricultural relationship.
Because Mexico depends heavily on U.S. pork and beef to meet domestic demand, even minor trade disruptions could quickly affect food prices and availability. Gerardo Rodriguez Sanchez, regional director for USMEF in Mexico, said Mexico would struggle to replace U.S. supply in the short term, while U.S. producers would lose a high‑volume, reliable market.
“We know our strengths, and we know our weaknesses,” Sanchez said of Mexico’s reliance on U.S. meat and the country’s need to preserve a relationship with its North American Neighbors.
The USMCA is subject to a mandatory joint review every six years and is scheduled to terminate July 1, 2036, unless all three countries renew it in a “joint-agreement.” IFB submitted comments during the U.S. Trade Representative’s public consultation held from December 2025 through January 2026, urging that the review focus on expanding market access while preserving the agreement’s existing benefits to support continued trade growth.